it’s just around the corner in the Saudi Civil War

Lifted shamelessly from 8ch (where Ex-Army fans are posting Quibcags even as we speak…)
So I know we’re all fixated on Rubio’s questionable results but there is something I think we should discuss: Saudi Arabia’s lack of stability.
89.8% of Saudi Arabia’s exports (on which its economy depends) are oil and petrochemical related. The next biggest sector is scrap iron, aluminum, and related products. With the price of oil declining, we should consider the implications of reduced revenues for the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia is not food-independent, the population must import food to feed itself.
The labor force of Saudi Arabia has about 30 million inhabitants but a labor force of only 8 million. 80% of that labor force is foreign. Much of Saudi Arabia’s native population lives off of what might be the most generous welfare system on the planet.
Then we consider Saudi Arabia’s military. It’s armed to the teeth with some of the best weapons money can buy but its own people are largely incapable of using it. They rely on foreign advisers, contractors, trainers, etc. to maintain and make use of their equipment.
Now the real fun: the line of royal succession. Ibn Saud -> Saud -> Faisal -> Khalid -> Fahd -> Abdullah -> Salman. Everyone there but Ibn Saud are brothers, sons of Ibn Saud. So consider that Salman is the last of the brothers, has broken tradition by naming his nephew as Crown Prince. Everything’s out the window now. The sons of Ibn Saud’s brothers feel scorned, the thousands of Ibn Saud’s grandsons who’re out of the line of succession feel scorned. These guys aren’t powerless though, many control vital business sectors, important ministries, high military posts, etc. They all have enormous bank accounts, foreign accounts, and many have been building personal fiefdoms within the Saudi government or economy for decades. And they all think they deserve a shot at being King.
So to sum up points, we have:
>A huge portion of the population that is permanently unemployed
>A country that cannot feed itself
>A country whose infrastructure and services rely almost entirely on the labor done by foreign experts
>A country that relies on enormous oil export revenues to maintain a generous welfare system for its populace
>A country in which the majority religion is a very hard-line sect of Islam
>A country known to harbor some of the Islamic world’s most radical and well-connected extremists
>A military armed to the teeth with the best weaponry money can buy
>A country that might or might not have nukes
>Key ministries and business sectors controlled by various princes from competing or outright hostile branches of the ruling dynasty – almost all of these controlled as personal fiefdoms for decades or more by the individual princes in question
>A succession tradition that is now totally invalid
>Declining global oil prices and thus profits on the country’s only real economic sector
>Retired US Generals, Admirals, experienced officers, and non-commissioned officers are 100% for sale via a private company known as MPRI (among a few others). Companies like this have offered “lease-a-command-staff” packages during wars in the past and they have proven more than worth the cost.
>Russian and Ukrainian pilots, bombs, missiles, combat aircraft, and support personnel are 100% for sale. Private companies have composed the effective air forces of a handful of African countries since the 90’s.
>There are private companies currently operating air combat training, maintenance, and armament packages using retired personnel and equipment from the USA, the UK, France, and Germany.
>South African special forces have been for sale since the mid-90’s with a sterling reputation and record, the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts have seen special forces personnel of the USA, UK, and France doing similar work but not on the immense “hire an entire goddamn army” scale that the South Africans pioneered… yet
It’s going to be a goddamn free-for-all. Every mercenary, contractor, etc. is going to smell blood money and the Saudi princes will have more than enough of it. They’ll have equipment and personnel they can’t use (because their own combat pilots are afraid to fly through clouds- just an example) but foreigners are more than capable of using. There’s going to be Islamist militias akin to ISIS marauding about, princes’ private militaries fighting, some hardliner loyalists like the SANG fighting everyone, and a population of ~25 million suddenly cut off from food, water, electricity, entertainment, and welfare money.
IF there is a civil war in Saudi Arabia, we will see the most fucked up orgy of violence, profit, and ideology run amok since the various wars in Africa of the 1990’s… except this time the combatants will have nigh limitless piles of money and some of the most advanced weaponry on the planet.
How do we profit from it and how do we keep our countries from getting sucked into the mess?

This entry was posted in political economy. Bookmark the permalink.